Oscar Picks (1 of 3)

When the nominations first came out, I made this post.  In the month that has elapsed, a few of my thoughts have changed, so I'd like to update my picks.

I'm also going to mention HSX.  That's the Hollywood Stock Exchange.  It's a place where you "trade stock" in movies and actors based on how well you expect them to do -- except it's all fake money.  They have "options" on the Academy Awards -- and the way the Awards Options are trading is a good barometer of what people who Really Follow Movies think is going to happen.

Best Picture:  I expect LOTR: ROTK.  So do the HSX traders.  By a lot.
Possible Things Against It:  I, personally, feel no buzz for this picture.  The problem, I think, is that after FOTR came out, I loved it, and was full of all sorts of geeky excitement for TTT to come out.  And after that, I couldn't wait for ROTK to come out.  And now it has, and it's over.  It's like I'd been waiting so long for the trilogy to culminate, it had its own sense of closure.  So I'm just not feeling all that anticipatory Ringsy excitement.  Look, I still think ROTK will win, and I really HOPE it will too.  But I won't fall off the couch if Mystic River takes it.